Food inflation

On 18 June full HICP inflation figures for May were published by Eurostat. With the May 2024 HICP statistics out, we can see how the divergence between overall food prices in Malta and the Euro Area average has developed. As shown below the divergence experienced with regards the annual change in HICP for May (+3.3%) for All Food, is slightly lower than that experienced in April (+4%), but this is still well above the divergence experienced from June 2023 to November 2023. This divergence jumped in December 2023 (+4.2%) and peaked in January (+5.2%).

However, the above is just an initial analysis which merits a deeper dive to really understand what is happening. To do so, let us first examine the divergence between the Euro Area average and Malta with regards the Annual change in HICP for May with regards Processed Food (excluding Alcohol & Tobacco). When analysing Processed Food we see that the divergence in May (+2.5%), just below the divergence in April (+3.1%), is still very much above the divergence level experienced from July 2023 to November 2023.

If we do the same and now examine the divergence between the Euro Area average and Malta with regards the Annual change in HICP for May with regards Unprocessed Food, we see that the divergence in May (+3.4%) was above the divergence experienced from July 2023 to November 2023 and below the divergence experienced in December 2023 (+5.4%), January (+6.5%) and March (+4.1%) and slightly above the divergence of the previous month (+3.1%).

To have a more detailed look, below please find detailed figures for certain popular food categories, which compares the Euro Area average and Malta’s Annual HICP rates from September 2023 to May.

The above figures outline that the food categories that saw a greater decline in HICP rates in Malta than the Euro Area for the month of May, were pasta, preserved milk, pork, eggs and butter.

On the other hand, the food categories that saw a lower decline or a higher increase in HICP rate in Malta than the Euro Area for the month of May were poultry, coffee, frozen vegetables, tea, fresh vegetables and fresh fruit. The last two had a substantial divergence from the Euro Area average with Fresh fruit being at +5.4% and Fresh vegetables being at +2.9%.