Last Updated on Thursday, 19 December, 2024 at 8:55 am by Andre Camilleri
Last week I promised my readers that I will be writing about the current military and political crisis unfolding in Syria. However, I did not realise that this is the last article for this year. Nonetheless, I will touch upon the topic in the first part of this opinion piece.
When the news broke, that Bashar al-Assad fled Damascus, I sincerely thought it was a damascene conversion. Truly, I contemplated whether he will be giving himself to the authorities for the atrocities he inflicted on the Syrian people. However, later I learned that he flew to Moscow, without even informing his closest allies. When news about fleeing Syra emerged, it occurred to me how bad it must be, to not even inform his relatives. When his relatives realised what was happening, they tried to find an escape route. However, his cousin was killed at the border of Lebanon, while his brother managed to sneak to Iraq and caught a flight to Moscow. Ruthless as it may sound, he did not even inform his closest allies.
Surprisingly, a week later he gave an interview to the media. During his interview, Bashar al-Assad said that he did not even know what was happening when the Russians escorted him to a military base and flew him to Moscow. Well, even the brainless person would realise that something was not right. The interview exposed the coping mechanism state that Bashar al-Assad is currently in. Stating that he was ready to keep on fighting is just a ruse. Indeed, when I learnt that he fled to Moscow, I was wondering whether there is a plot hatched for the EU. In 2015, the migrant and refugee crisis sent shockwaves across the European continent. Several member states, including Greece, couldn’t cope with the influx of refugees trying to flee the war. I recall Kristalina Georgieva, former Commissioner for EU Budget, setting up the MADAD Trust Fund for Syrians and collecting, as many bilateral funds as possible to assist children. The most heartbreaking and graphic image I ever saw was that of Alan Kurdi, the two-year-old Syrian boy that drowned along with his family, while trying to cross to Europe. Alan’s tiny body was washed ashore after a rubber dingy capsized while trying to reach Greece. They left their war-torn country with just their clothes. Alan was photographed by a Turkish journalist, barefoot, in a red t-shirt, and blue short pants. This is what the war meant! This is what the Syrian people had to endure, while Bashar al-Assad was enjoying his lavish lifestyle in the palace. To this very day I can’t look at that photo. It is quite disturbing.
The sanctions on Assad’s regime did not hurt him and his closest allies. It desperately hit the Syrian people on the ground, leaving them without basic food and proper utilities. When in 2022, I spoke against sanctions, I did it in general, not specifically to defend Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. As a general rule, the people on the ground are the ones mostly affected by sanctions. And it took almost 12 years to see Assad’s regime ousted, meaning that sanctions did not affect him in the short to medium term. Not even in the long run. Nobody ever thought that he will last so long, with the EU ending up paralysed due to the migrants and refugee crisis in 2015. I had the opportunity to meet with Syrian women, as well as the opposing members of the regime, back in 2018 when I was posted in Brussels. The images I saw of the wreckage of war, as well as the atrocities committed on the Syrian people, left me with no option but to leave the room when we were in the meeting playing the footage. I couldn’t bear watching and listening for a few minutes. Later I had to go for additional training to learn how to handle such situations, as part of our work.
Certainly, I hope that Bashar al-Assad in Moscow, is not used as a proxy. The tactics are not looking good, and he might be used carefully against the EU. It is common knowledge that the EU is divided on migration. And what is needed to destabilise the EU, at this point in time, is a refugee crisis. They know that by weaponing migrants, and refugees, it could create additional political and economic instability, in the region spilling over to the EU’s territory. I saw the president of the Commission’s post about what is happening. And indeed, we need to pay attention. Now that many are busy with the Christmas recess, we do not afford additional instability thereafter.
Well, 2024 was quite a difficult year for many countries, both politically and economically. In 2024, the MEP elections saw additional members of the far-right being elected as members of the European parliament, while Romania’s Constitutional court cancelled the presidential elections due to Russian interference. Or at least, that is what the declassified documents presented in court are stating. As time goes by, the far-right populist narrative is increasing and on the rise. It is attributed to the result of economic problems. Meanwhile, Donald Trump was re-elected as president of the USA. Joe Biden, the outgoing USA president, pardoned his own son. While the Chancellor of Germany, Olaf Scholz, had to call a snap election after losing a no confidence vote. Economic trouble is also brewing in Germany, the largest EU member state.
What we will witness in 2025 is quite unpredictable. However, my guess would be that there will be no peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, while the Middle East will end up as a hotspot for additional instability. It has grown into a regional conflict with many actors involved, including Israel, Yemen, Lebanon, Iran, and Syria. The EU’s economies will not pick up, and we have to decide on how to adjust to make way to the economic peace dividend we were used to in the past three decades. Malta must be assertive when it comes to the upcoming MFF and tap into new funds, especially if defence is going to be the major topic. Last week, I gave some ideas on what we must do. Now it is up to the authorities to consider our ideas.
Lastly, I want to thank the editor and the management of the Malta Business Weekly, for allowing me this space, and to write freely and independently. Sincerely, I take this opportunity to wish you and your loved ones a blessed Christmas and a prosperous new year. Thank you!
