Inbound tourism – The next level

This column had predicted way back in an article published on 15 May 2025, that Malta would hit the 4 million mark, after analysing the inbound tourism data for Q1 2025. At the time some had raised eyebrows at my prediction, which last week has been fully proven to have been 100% correct.

I believe it would serve everyone to understand the trajectory of our inbound tourism market in the past years, to understand how we got here, what worked and what gaps we need to address to ensure a sustainable tourism industry in Malta. To shed light on this matter, I will compare the state of our tourism industry in 2019 (the last year before the pandemic) with its condition in 2025.

If we were to compare the amount of inbound tourists for each month of the year for 2019 and 2025 we would get the below results:

The chart above begins to reveal some interesting insights. First of all, one can see that the greatest monthly increases were in the so-called shoulder months and not in the peak summer months. So much so, that while August has remained the number one month both in 2025 and 2019 for tourist arrivals, the number two month has shifted from July in 2019 to October in 2025.

Between 2019 and 2025, there have also been shifts in source markets, while the top five source markets in 2019 where the UK, Italy, Germany, France and Spain, in 2025 we can see that Poland has substituted Spain in the top five source markets.

As I have long argued, the true test of the sustainability of our tourism industry is not merely the number of tourist arrivals, but the real average spending per tourist. As shown below, the real average spending per tourist in 2025 (based on 2019 price levels) was slightly higher than in 2019.

It is interesting to see a comparison of the average real spend per tourist on a monthly basis for 2019 and 2025 as show below.

The message from the above figures is very clear. The months in 2025 that generated the increase in average spend per tourist when compared to 2019 where September, October and November. A closer look at the age distribution of inbound tourists between June to August 2025 and September to November 2025, shed some light on why we had an increase in average real spend in the months September, October and November.

As shown above, around one third of tourists arriving in Malta during the summer months are under 24 years old, while only about a quarter are aged between 45 and 64. The situation shifts in the months of September to November 2025, whereby 70% of tourists arriving are between 25 years and 64 years. This, I believe, gives a good indication why the average real spend increased in the months of September, October and November 2025. This could also be linked to a very strong performance of the MICE sector during these months. It is well known that a MICE visitor has a higher spend per tourist than the average leisure tourist.

One element that also changes is the average duration (in bed nights) of tourists staying in Malta. In 2019 the average stay was of 7.02 bed nights. In 2025, the average went down to 6.32 bed nights. We need to keep a watchful eye here, as a dropping average stay brings its challenges as to fill bed nights one would need more tourist arrivals, putting more strain on the nation’s infrastructure.

I conclude with the target set for the Malta Vision 2050. In its issued consultation document, the Malta Vision 2050 set a target of 4.5 million tourists by 2035. At this rate we stand a good chance of hitting this number by end 2026. One wonders what this would mean from a policy perspective. Are we going to take measures to ensure that we protect the sustainability of our tourism industry by not allowing us to go beyond the 4.5 million mark in tourist arrivals? The Malta Vision 2050 sets the target to hit an average spend per night by 2035 of €220-€230 (on 2025 levels). The average nominal spend per night in 2025 was of €153.48. That means an ambitious 43% increase in average spend per night.

Malta stands at a pivotal crossroads in the development of its tourism industry. We have officially conquered the numbers game, but as we accelerate toward the 4.5 million target projected for 2035, which will likely be smashed by the end of 2026, we must ask ourselves: at what cost? The data is clear. Our future does not lie in more feet on the ground, but in the value those visitors bring. While the shift toward high-spending demographics in the shoulder months shows promise, the “litmus test” of our success remains the real average spend per tourist. The drop from 7.02 to 6.32 bed nights means we are working harder to fill the same space, placing an ever-increasing strain on our national infrastructure. Moreover, to reach the Malta Vision 2050 goal of €220-€230 per night, we must trigger a massive 43% increase in spending from our current levels.

If we are to reach “the next level”, our strategy must now prioritise high-quality experiences to attract the type of tourists needed to achieve a higher real average spend. This means that we must pivot from chasing volume to providing quality. The question is no longer how many tourists we can fit on our islands, but how much value we can derive from those who truly appreciate what we have to offer.