Malta emissions: What to expect by 2030

What is the price of progress?  Economic growth in Malta is expected to reach 4.0% in 2025, moderating to 3.8% in 2026, and 3.5% in 2027.

Inflation is projected to slow down while the labour market remains tight. The finance minister trumpets success stating how the government deficit is expected to decrease to 3.2% of GDP in 2025, 2.8% in 2026, and 2.6% in 2027.  Stop and reflect on a reasonable debt-to-GDP ratio which is expected to stabilise at around 47.3%, (quite comfortable when compared to highly indebted EU countries).  Part of this bonanza comes at a price of higher carbon factors. Stop and follow Government consumption growth-this is set to reach 6.9% in 2025 but then slow down to 4.1% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027 yet still supporting a healthy GDP growth. The priming of the GDP pump by fuelling domestic spending and accelerated population growth (via migration of TCN’s), is a typical recipe of the Labour government in the last twelve years.

Recall the humble days of tourism which started in the early sixties.  Now, thanks to low-cost carriers this industry has ballooned to fill heavy investment by property barons of thousands of beds in hotels and apartments.  MHRA predicts almost 4 million visitors this year. Imagine, the rise in carbon fumes ejected by burning aircraft fuel over villages close to the airport. Permit me to digress and quote from a study, carried out by Noel Aquilina and Benjamin Tabone Adami at the University of Malta’s chemistry department, which tracked black carbon, or soot, levels across several sites in the islands.

One is shocked by the revelations. Nonchalantly, it found that 79 deaths during 2023, roughly 2% of the total number of deaths across the country, could be attributed to the effects of long-term exposure to black carbon emitted by 464,000 -ICE engines. Seriously deaths could reach as high as 26 per 100,000 particularly in more congested traffic hotspots, such as St Paul’s Bay and Gzira, where people are more likely to be exposed to higher concentrations of soot on a regular basis. Black carbon, on the other hand, is entirely the result of combustion from fossil fuels, mostly caused by petrol and diesel-powered cars, heavy industry, the never-ending increase in tourist arrivals by air travel, and burning of organic matter, such as wood, agricultural and organic waste.

One may ask what the official statistics are to measure such emissions. The total territorial GHG emissions circle on the order of a few million tonnes CO2‑equivalent per year — roughly 2–4 Mt CO2e in recent years (single‑digit million tonnes). This can be reduced or compared on a per capillary basis with roughly 5–8 t CO2e per person (i.e., higher than many larger EU members on a per‑person basis).  Transport and air traffic are the single largest sub‑sectors, while agriculture and industrial process emissions are comparatively small.  Recent trend about emissions rose somewhat in the pre‑pandemic years, fell in 2020 with the pandemic, and partially rebounded in 2021–2022.

Overall, the country’s absolute emissions are small in EU terms but it is the per‑capita figure which is worrying. The tiny 319 square kilometre island has practical constraints: very limited land area which cannot attract investment for very large land-based renewables build‑outs, or favour importing hydrogen or hydrogen carriers rather than building large domestic electrolysis on a median scale.  Estimated share of green electricity generation from renewables is modest: –

– 2022: roughly 4–6% (mostly solar PV)  

– 2023: roughly 6–8%  

– 2024 (up to mid‑2024 / provisional): roughly 7–10%

In fact, the popular trend of rapidly expanding solar PV (rooftop + ground‑mounted) is positive but it is a small renewable capacity.  Malta’s renewable share has been in the single digits and shall rise slowly year‑by‑year as more PV came online. Looking up data from Eurostat — Energy statistics: this shows “gross electricity generation by source” (dataset codes: energy statistics tables under electricity generation by source). For technically minded readers, who desire to know how to compute electricity generation from renewable sources ÷ gross electricity generation × 100. Another source is IEA – Country energy profile for Malta: electricity generation by source (MWh or TWh) and the share of renewables.  Finally to seek indigenous regulators  try:-

Regulator for Energy and Water Services (REWS) / Energy and Water Agency / Malta Ministry of Energy – they publish annual reports and statistics which include electricity generation by source and renewables share. Readers who are technically inclined must by now have followed Malta’s NECP and other policy documents (through mid‑2024).

These reports mention green hydrogen and other fuels as strategic options, and authorities have indicated interest in allocating funds to consultants generating feasibility, pilot projects and enabling regulatory frameworks rather than committing large MW/MWh production targets for 2030.  As a practical step towards alternative green fuel, one meets with small pilot/demonstration electrolysers co‑located with solar or hybrid projects.  For the future, these may be a stepping stone or a precursor for building commercial facilities on offshore EEZ areas such as Hurds bank. 

Sadly, this vision will not materialize by 2030, but with EU funds and political nous it may become a reality in 2050.