I read with great interest the detailed analysis of Malta’s air connectivity in 2024, drawing on a recent discussion paper by Kurt Sant from the Central Bank of Malta. The paper offers a comprehensive evaluation of scheduled passenger flights, seat capacity, airline competition and the environmental impact of aviation to and from the island. Building on previous analyses, this study utilises new, detailed forward-looking and backward-looking databases, offering valuable insights into the current state and future trajectory of Malta’s air links
Current state
In 2024, Malta demonstrated significant growth in its aviation network, with 55,850 scheduled flights connecting the island to 109 airports across 35 countries. This marks a notable recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic, which had severely impacted connectivity, reducing direct routes to just 70 in 2020. By 2023, this had rebounded to 100 direct routes. While the 2024 figures represent substantial progress, they still fall short of the 125 airports in 40 countries connected in 2019.
The operation of scheduled flights in 2024 exhibited a highly seasonal trend, with nearly half (49.3%) concentrated in the May to September peak period. August recorded the highest activity (10.4% of total annual flights), while February experienced the lowest. Despite this seasonal drop, off-peak month activity was stronger than in previous years, indicating growing demand for year-round travel.
The market was dominated by Ryanair and KM Malta Airlines, which together operated nearly 70% of scheduled flights. Ryanair accounted for 47.1% of all flights, showing a strong seasonal focus during summer, while KM Malta Airlines maintained a steadier year-round schedule, prioritising connections to major European hubs. Other airlines such as EasyJet and Wizz Air showed varying degrees of seasonality, while legacy carriers like Lufthansa and Emirates ensured reliable year-round links to global transport networks.
In terms of seat capacity, the 2024 scheduled flights provided 10,331,054 seats. Ryanair again led, offering nearly half of the total capacity (around five million seats), followed by KM Malta Airlines (22% or over 2.3 million seats). Key destinations in terms of seat capacity included Rome Fiumicino, London Gatwick and Catania. London emerged as a critical market, with combined seat capacity from Gatwick, Heathrow and Stansted exceeding one million annually. Italy and the United Kingdom were Malta’s largest markets by country, collectively accounting for nearly 45% of total seat capacity.
Opportunities
The analysis provided in this discussion paper outlines key opportunities for the further development of Malta’s air connectivity. The upward trend in connectivity and passenger numbers indicates a strong recovery trajectory from the pandemic-induced slump. The projected further growth in passenger movements to 9.3 million in 2025, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, presents a significant opportunity. Furthermore, announced routes for 2025 include connections to entirely new destinations like Helsinki, Santorini, Rimini and Benghazi, as well as the reinstatement of Qatar Airways’ Doha connection, a crucial long-haul hub. Increased services by airlines like EasyJet, Ryanair, SAS and KM Malta Airlines to existing destinations such as London Southend, Glasgow, Bordeaux, Copenhagen, Warsaw and Istanbul are expected to increase competition and offer greater choice to passengers. On the other hand, the stronger flight activity during off-peak months in 2024 suggests a growing demand for year-round travel, providing opportunities for airlines to expand services beyond the traditional summer season. The KM Malta Airlines’ proactive fleet modernisation with Airbus A320neo aircraft presents an opportunity for enhanced fuel efficiency, reduced emissions and lower operational costs, particularly in the context of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS). This aligns with the global push for sustainable aviation practices. While major markets like Italy and the UK are crucial, there remains potential to further develop niche and new connections to broaden Malta’s air connectivity and cater to diverse travel demands.
Risks and challenges
Despite the positive developments, the discussion paper also outlines several risks and challenges that could impede the growth and sustainability of Malta’s air connectivity. The significant seasonal variations in flight frequencies and connectivity remain a challenge, particularly for maintaining consistent year-round links to certain destinations. The loss of connectivity to five countries outside the summer months in 2024 highlights this vulnerability. The paper mentions potential infrastructure constraints at Malta International Airport and the risk of seasonal delays as significant hurdles. These issues can negatively impact the passenger experience and the efficiency of operations. Furthermore, compliance with evolving EU environmental regulations, particularly the phased removal of free ETS aviation allowances by 2026 and the introduction of RefuelEU Aviation mandating Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) blending, poses financial risks. The analysis in this discussion paper estimates that one-way ticket prices for flights to and from Malta could increase by over €10 per passenger due to ETS costs alone. The higher cost of SAF compared to conventional fuel will further drive-up operational expenses, whereby these increased costs could impact the viability of certain routes, especially those operated by smaller carriers or serving price-sensitive markets.
Another risk is that while Ryanair and KM Malta Airlines play a crucial role, their dominance could pose risks related to competition and pricing. The introduction of new airlines on existing routes in 2025 aims to address this by offering passengers greater choice. There are then also other external factors such as geopolitical events, that can lead to the suspension of connections, which can thus unexpectedly disrupt connectivity levels.
Way forward
The paper makes it clear that to ensure the long-term competitiveness and sustainability of Malta’s air connectivity, policymakers should prioritise a holistic approach that balances growth ambitions with environmental responsibility. To achieve this, various actions are needed. Addressing potential infrastructure constraints at Malta International Airport requires further investments to accommodate future growth and minimise delays. Investments should focus on enhancing capacity and operational efficiency at Malta’s only airport.
It is also extremely important that policymakers consider seriously how to craft incentives to encourage airlines operating to and from Malta to accelerate fleet modernisation with fuel-efficient aircraft and to adopt Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs). This could help mitigate the cost increases associated with EU environmental regulations. It is also important for Malta to monitor very closely the evolving EU environmental regulations and adopt a proactive adaptation strategic approach to minimise sudden negative impacts on Malta’s air connectivity, while ensuring compliance. Further initiatives to stimulate demand during off-peak seasons and support airlines in maintaining year-round connections to a broader range of destinations should be explored. This could involve targeted tourism campaigns or route development support. While acknowledging the importance of key players like Ryanair and KM Malta Airlines, policies should aim to foster a competitive aviation market, encouraging new entrants and route diversification to provide passengers with more options and potentially more competitive fares.
In conclusion, Malta’s air connectivity in 2024 reflects a positive trajectory of recovery and growth. The expansion of the network and the increase in passenger numbers present significant opportunities for the island’s economy. However, several risks, particularly those related to seasonal fluctuations, infrastructure constraints and the increasing costs associated with environmental regulations, need careful consideration. By adopting a strategic and forward-looking approach that prioritises both enhanced connectivity and environmental sustainability, policymakers can ensure that Malta remains a competitive and well-connected aviation hub in the Mediterranean for years to come. The focus on fleet modernisation, the adoption of sustainable practices and strategic investments will be crucial in navigating the evolving landscape of European aviation.
