This week, I had some time at my disposal, and for my sins, I decided to read the white paper on defence that was issued by the European Commission and presented in last week’s European Council. Among other things, the white paper connects the EU’s competitiveness with defence. Besides, the way the white paper was written, especially the choice of words and tone, is short of de-escalation. Au contraire, it fuels escalation.
At times, I come across a bit direct because I do not mince my words. True, it is quite difficult to survive in Malta’s society, especially in politics when you adopt such a blunt approach. However, people must appreciate truthfulness in providing such information. Alas, the way the defence debate is unfolding in Malta, is not informing but disinforming people. To build a civilised society we need to have proper informed discussions, and our Parliament must not be reduced to churlish conducts. What we surely need are high standards. And high standards must be bestowed upon Malta from one administration to another, irrespective of which party is in government. A quote that struck me this week was that of the former editor of The Times, Sir William Haley. What I will be writing in the ensuing paragraphs might not be popular. However, as Sir Haley wrote, “there are things which are bad and false and ugly, and no amount of argument or specious casuistry will make them good or true or beautiful”. Well, I must agree with that statement, and certainly it is high time that these things were said.
The rushed defence white paper termed ReArm Europe depicts a bleak picture, even though the EU Commission are trying to disguise its ugliness under the competitiveness beauty. Readiness 2030 does not just outline what must be done to rearm Europe, but what Ukraine must look like from a defence perspective by 2030. If Ukraine had to join the EU before 2030, it requires a proper self-defence to restraint military uncertainty. It is no secret that Ukraine embraced one of the best arms productions during the USSR period. They can easily industrialise their productions. Germany can assist along with other countries. The way the EU envisages Ukraine, is that it will be the frontline country that will change the new international order. Ukraine is interconnected with Europe’s security, which means that forging ahead with such an agenda will not de-escalate but escalate things in the future. With hindsight, it makes all perfect sense now. The USA just wanted to test the porcupine strategy in Ukraine’s territory in 2022.
The porcupine strategy, or as also known the overall defence concept, was devised by the former chief of the armed forces of Taiwan, Lee His Ming. The strategy dates to 2017. The concept tests how costly, and lengthy, a smaller state resists a larger predator, just by stockpiling lighter weapons. The price that must be paid by a larger predator for an invasion would be too costly to even dare push towards that direction. It is part of a deterrence programme and strategy. Basically, what a smaller country under threat needs to harness is agile and concealable weapons, such as the javelins and stinger missiles. Yes, the same javelins mentioned by Donald Trump in his exchange with President Zelenskyy in the Oval Office. These weapons work in the same way that the quills of a porcupine would hit a predator. The quills are sharp and hurtful.
When the porcupine strategy was tested in Ukraine, the United States wanted Beijing to take note of what would happen if they ventured to invade Taiwan. I think it is the first test case of a small country resisting a larger predator. The same cost would be paid by China if they were to invade Taiwan. Certainly, Xi Jinping watched closely the impact of the Ukrainian war. This is why, back in 2022, I said that if Russia manages to take over Ukraine, I do not exclude that something equivalent happens in the Indo-Pacific. The USA’s security interests are not Europe but the Indo-Pacific. The Taiwanese provide microchips and semiconductors to the USA, which have become indispensable for the USA’s economy. Any disruptions would certainly hit the USA’s technology, defence and space programmes. This is why the USA is looking towards protecting Taiwan. However, the USA requires a share of Ukraine’s 117 mineral resources to accelerate its technological and space revolution programmes. And this is why Russia stand to gain from the peace negotiations, rather than lose.
It is worth mentioning that the USA is highly dependent on space assets to fight a war from weather forecasts to the stationing of troops. Satellites are crucial for the USA, in case of a war with China. This is why Trump is enthusiastically embracing Elon Musk. Musk’s companies, including Space X, have the capacity to provide, in a relatively short period of time, enough industrial capacity to supply the USA’s defence powers with space assets. It is indeed a smart decision. China is highly advancing in space militarisation, and the USA, as an established ruling power, will never allow a rising power to take its place. This is part of the USA’s foreign policy. This is why Trump’s narrative is a bit inflated at times, calling the USA as once respected nation, and that they will Make America Great Again. It shows signs of uncertainty and is sending a clear message to the rising power. And the problem of war is uncertainty. In fact, Carl von Clausewitz calls it “the fog of war”. Surely, we do not need wars. What we need is diplomatic certainty and personnel who deliver coherent messages to avoid wars, even when writing white papers.
I am sure that the EU is following closely the negotiations, even though some of those running the show are inept. One of the prerequisites of the porcupine strategy is the length with which assisting countries provide the victim of arms aggression with supplies of armaments. This is also a reason why the EU wants to revise the procurement processes, and waive the VAT on military, as well as simplifying procedure to the point of mutually recognising national certification permits, and permit grating to move military equipment. When it comes to military mobility the way the white paper is written shows that diplomatic clearances and customs approvals will be simplified. The EU identified four corridors to supply military equipment, which will extend to Ukraine, including sea, rail, road and air. Furthermore, Ukraine will be allowed to participate in Pesco projects and will be granted access to the Coordinated Annual Review on Defence.
From all the babble that was told to the people in the past weeks, the most important part of the white paper is the simplification with which customs, as well as diplomatic clearances will be given to move military equipment. I am sure that the Maltese government will keep an eye on this, because the white paper is explicit and outlines also the ease with which military troops move from one state to another. Our diplomats have a big role to play. When I was posted in Brussels, I did my part. And I always questioned the behaviour and conduct of certain personnel at the foreign ministry. Good luck!
