Dr Ovidiu Tierean is a Senior Advisor at PKF Malta
In the wake of last year’s European elections, the political landscape of the European Union has undergone a significant transformation that poses a profound challenge to one of its most ambitious initiatives: the European Green Deal. Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, finds herself walking on a complex political path where preserving the core of her defining climate policy demands difficult compromises and concessions.
Launched in 2019, the European Green Deal set out an ambitious vision to overhaul the EU economy, aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050. It promised a comprehensive transformation of agriculture, transport, energy, and industry, aligning economic activity with environmental sustainability. Back then, the centre coalition of conservatives, socialists, and greens had a comfortable majority in the European Parliament. However, the political realities following the 2024 European Parliament elections have complicated this vision. The emergence of a new alternative right-wing majority to von der Leyen’s centre-right EPP, has intensified pressure to dilute Green Deal’s ambitions.
Von der Leyen is determined to save the Green Deal, even if it means cutting off some of its less critical components. This metaphor, drawn from her medical background, reflects a pragmatic approach to preserving the initiative’s core goals amid mounting opposition. The Green Deal’s central commitment, to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, remains intact so far, but many ancillary policies have been scaled back to accommodate political realities.
The coalition opposing the Green Deal is diverse and influential. It includes corporate lobbyists worried of stringent regulations, far-right factions hostile to environmental policies, and members of the EPP who have shifted towards a more conservative stance, under the leadership of EPP President Manfred Weber. Weber has leveraged the right-leaning majority in Parliament to challenge and water down key elements of the Green Deal, such as stricter car emissions standards, corporate environmental reporting requirements, and pesticide regulations.
In response, von der Leyen’s Commission has made several concessions. Rules on car emissions have been relaxed, corporate regulations simplified and funding priorities redirected. Notably, a proposed law to regulate pesticide use was shelved and efforts to address carbon pollution from agriculture, a significant emitter, have stalled. The drop that filled the deregulation cup is a high-profile anti-greenwashing measure, designed to prevent companies from making false environmental claims. Von de Leyen withdrew the bill under pressure from the EPP and far-right groups, sparking a fierce backlash from centrist and left-leaning parties, the ones that were part of the majority back in 2019.
Despite these setbacks, von der Leyen insists that the Green Deal endures. The Commission is standing firm by the European Green Deal. Climate change won’t go away, but for now the strategy focuses on simplifying legislation to ensure implementation, acknowledging that overly complex rules risk failure. This has meant prioritizing climate change laws and the 2050 net-zero target while sidelining broader sustainability ambitions.
This narrowing of focus has sparked frustration among environmental advocates and political groups committed to a holistic Green Deal. They argue that climate, nature, and corporate accountability are deeply interconnected and that weakening any part undermines the whole.
The narrow political path von der Leyen walks on is further complicated by the fractured nature of the right-wing majority. While the EPP has aligned with far-right parties on some issues in the past, ideological divisions, ranging from attitudes the war between Russia and Ukraine to social policies on LGBTQ+ rights and abortion, make a stable coalition difficult. Von der Leyen, conscious of her German centrist roots and the historical sensitivities involved, is cautious about relying too heavily on extremist nationalist factions, many of which support views that come in sharp contrast to her values and the EU’s democratic principles.
The dilemma von de Leyen faces is that socialists and liberals, who have been key allies, are increasingly disillusioned with the watering down of the Green Deal and threaten to withdraw support for her agenda if commitments are not honored. The EPP itself is divided, with some members supporting a strong Green Deal and others pushing for greater flexibility and simplified bureaucracy about environmental reporting.
This political dynamic was evident in the recent controversy over the EU’s 2040 climate target. The Commission presented its 2040 climate target on 2nd July. This proposal sets a goal of reducing net greenhouse gas emissions by 90% compared to 1990 levels, but some member states and political groups are pushing to limit its impact on near-term climate efforts, potentially delaying progress. The EPP seeks more flexibility in how countries meet their own targets, with proposals allowing emissions reductions to be outsourced to poorer nations. Von der Leyen has accepted some concessions but remains committed to the ambitious emissions cut.
The broader context includes ongoing efforts to simplify and accelerate the EU’s green industrial transition. The Commission is consulting on new state aid frameworks to support renewable energy, energy storage, and decarbonization technologies, aiming to balance competitiveness with sustainability.
Whether this strategy will be sufficient to meet EU’s climate challenges remains to be seen, but it underscores the complexity of governing in an era of shifting political tides and rising environmental stakes.
