Right now, I am closely following developments in Europe, both economically and politically. It is not easy to interpret certain results, and one requires a lot of courage to say things that aren’t popular. However, leadership is about advancing reforms and positioning narratives that do not necessarily follow the most popular route, even though, in the long run, they pay off for the benefit of the nation and the continent.
Economic sluggishness in the EU
It is true that when, in 2022, I spoke of the economic hardships that would ensue, I was ahead of the curve. My point back then was not to appease any aggressors, but to find ways to ensure a lighter impact on Europe because economies couldn’t bear another shock. The pandemic shock wrought havoc on several economies that were still recovering from the financial crisis a decade earlier. Indeed, the 2015 Juncker Plan was to leverage budgets, engage the private sector, and promote an ecosystem that facilitates business to match the pre financial crisis level of private investment. The pandemic undid all of this, and what followed in 2022 — the energy shock — was fatal for several European economies. To make matters worse, the wars in Ukraine and the wider Middle East, together with global tariff escalations, have brought some of the EU’s economies to their knees.
When I speak of energy shocks or other exogenous economic shocks, we need to see the entire picture. These shocks feed into our system, into each level of economic activity. An energy shock, with inflation hitting double digit levels in Europe, sent another shock through many sectors, including cement, concrete, iron, and all the raw materials needed to build our infrastructure, our homes, and commercial buildings. Coupled with speculation, it didn’t help the housing market, and obviously prices soared. We are at a critical point, not just in the EU, but globally. Malta did a lot to help its people, businesses, and those in need. However, we need to revisit many policies introduced long ago to ensure that those at the lowest end of the salary band are lifted out of the risk of poverty. When we consider the shocks I’ve mentioned, some markets are in a new state after reaching a tipping point, due to distinct feedback loops feeding into the system. One of these markets is the housing market.
The right wing movements across the EU
For this reason, we must admit that, from a political point of view, examining how economies are structured and behaving is not helpful. We have the far right parties soaring in popularity. And the reason for this is positively correlated with economic sluggishness and the importation of rightist narratives into Europe. Certainly, we cannot compare the political fabric and social structure of the EU with that of the US. The two operate on opposing axes for different reasons, primarily cultural. The EU was born from the ashes of the Second World War. And it takes a bit of depth to understand what I am about to say. Indeed, the far right parties in Europe are masking themselves as friendly. Let me focus for a minute on Germany. Friedrich Merz doesn’t know what hit him with the current regional results, and even more so with the economic impacts that are leaving a lasting scar on Germany’s economy. However, the far right and Alice Weidel are playing chess by portraying the latter as approachable. No minority, and even less so no academic with a deep political and economic background and historical insights into Europe, would vote for Alice Weidel. Alice Weidel is being presented as a poster figure to soften the AfD’s image and alienate the German electorate from the party’s underlying ideological positions. Think about it, why would a leader of a political party choose to live primarily in a neighbouring country while officially maintaining her registered residence in Germany? Alice Weidel’s family home is in Switzerland, not Germany.
Wrapping alternative leaders in a nice wrapper
When digging further, one can notice that everything is ready lest they win the Bundestag anytime soon, and before 2029. Alice Weidel’s image and the political philosophy that is promoted, fomenting a narrative against certain minorities, are incompatible and cannot be regarded as complete. It’s built on a false image and a narrative that is too blatant to go unnoticed; or at least those with some analytical skills can see through it. The wrapper is one thing; the content inside is another. Alice Weidel’s personal life and the AfD’s political philosophy are on two opposing axes. Sadly, I must admit that if the EU, as well as the Germans, aren’t brave enough to prevent the inevitable, then we are heading for tough times.
Now, the EU must assess the negotiations from an MFF perspective and determine which funds can be allocated to mitigate the impact of rising diesel prices. The price of diesel has soared, due in part to geopolitical instability in the Middle East, disruptions in the Red Sea, and the ongoing war in Ukraine. These events have affected refinery output, shipping routes, and supply chains. As a result, diesel prices at fuel stations have outpaced crude oil prices. It is also a matter of supply constraints, with demand increasing to service our economies.
Mistaking the image with the underlying political ideology
Normally, I do not write about foreign politicians, except for von der Leyen, and I aim to find an alternative where countries and leaders can work together. However, having a leader of the most important and powerful country in the EU promoted to the public in a way that packages her as favourable to minorities simply because of the image that she is a lesbian in a registered partnership with a Sri Lankan, while simultaneously advancing a narrative that contradicts that image, is deeply worrying. If we want to regulate economic migration we need to tackle the root cause. And the root cause is the way the EU economies have been shaped over the past decades and the low fertility rate.
To conclude, those who use these narratives to win a seat in a federal or general election are only sowing the seeds of a future political movement that will eventually haunt and devour them, because they can never keep their promises. They can get rid of a few people. But that would be for the media to scapegoat. For the rest, additional thousands will be joining the EU’s economies without noticing. And that is what will happen in every Member State, unless the fertility rate soars. Well, do take note!
